N. Lake Tahoe, CA & Truckee Had Sustained Demand, Limited Inventory, & Modest Price Growth in 2024

The North Lake Tahoe, CA, real estate market finished 2024 on a positive note, with the volume of single-family home sales up 7%, the average home price jumped 4.5%, and the median home price up 2%. Remarkably, 53 homes priced above $4M changed hands, including 11 sales surpassing $11M. This surge in Tahoe luxury home sales reflects growing confidence among affluent buyers. With an increase in high-quality inventory, luxury buyers now have access to some of the most sought-after properties in desirable communities, empowering them to make more confident purchase decisions.

In 2024, buyers were concerned about the Fed’s battle with inflation, high mortgage interest rates, and the upcoming Presidential Election, all of which kept the volume of Tahoe home sales below the historical average. When the Fed began cutting rates in September, excitement built within the market, leading to some historic luxury home sales, including the highest lakefront sale ever at $62M in Incline Village. Overall, we see increased buyer optimism within the Tahoe-Truckee real estate market, but buyers remain cautious.

Buyers have been focused on value and snapped up good-quality homes within great neighborhoods as long as pricing was fairly in line with the market. Demand for homes priced below $1M is robust, and we saw these homes selling quickly in 2024 with numerous multiple-offer situations. As price points continue to tick up, demand for entry-level homes will remain strong into the future.

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Year End 2024 Highlights

• 11 Sales over $11,000,000, Up 55%
• Number of homes sold Up 7%
• Average home price Up 4.5% to $1,820,000
• High Sale: Martis Camp Luxury Estate at $23,600,000
• 5 Lakefront sales over $11M, high sale at $19,500,000
• Total sales volume = $1.47B, Up 12%

Year over Year Market Conditions and Value Trends

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Year End 2024 Market Report Sales Chart

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Year End 2024 Market Report Sales Volume Chart

*North Lake Tahoe, CA, and Truckee Single-Family Home sales, including lakefronts. Data is taken from the Tahoe-Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS Areas 1-9.

Absorption Rate: 2 Months of Inventory = Seller’s Market (kind of)

The term absorption rate refers to a metric used in a specific real estate market to evaluate the rate at which available homes are sold during a given period of time. Here are the statistics used to determine the absorption rate for the North Lake Tahoe, CA, and Truckee real estate market.

Absorption Rate (single-family homes)

• 522 Sales in the Last 6 Months
• 87 Sales per Month
• 3 Sales Per Day
• 174 Current Active Listings
• 174 Listings / 87 Sales Per Month = 2 Months of Inventory = Seller’s Market

• • • 1 to 3 Month Supply of Inventory = Seller’s Market
    • 4- 6 Months of Inventory = Balanced Market
    • 6+ Months of Inventory = Buyer’s Market

With only two months of inventory (single-family homes for sale), there are very few active listings in any given neighborhood, creating an advantage for sellers. However, the number of buyers in the market is down significantly, which reduces some of the seller’s power. When there is only one home for sale in a given neighborhood, the seller is in a good position to negotiate favorable terms.

In a more typical market, 2 months of inventory would produce bidding wars and above-average appreciation. This market is different due to limited buyer activity and high mortgage interest rates. Although this is technically a seller’s market, it feels and acts more like a stabilized market with supply and demand in balance.

Pending Home Sales Provide Market Insight 

Currently, 49 single-family homes are pending in escrow, with an average list price of $2,039,942 and a median price of $1,599,000. Of the 49 pending sales, 75% are priced over $1M, with 17 homes above $2M and 5 listings above $4M. The average marketing time for the pending sales is 79 days.

With pending sale pricing exceeding current average and median sales, this shows that we are on a positive trajectory despite challenging market conditions. Lake Tahoe buyers are searching for good-quality homes in desirable subdivisions, so those homes are selling well, while dated homes with differed maintenance in less desirable neighborhoods are proving more difficult to sell.

Buyers remain discerning, but when they find the right home, they make moves. If you have a high-quality home in a great neighborhood, this is a great time to sell. Overpriced homes do not fare well in this market and tend to linger, often requiring price reductions to generate a sale.

Predictions for the Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market in 2025

1) Activity will pick up

• Anticipate the volume of sales to increase this year as more buyers return to the market.
• Buyers will have more choices as the inventory of homes is expected to rise in 2025.

2) Mortgage rates will likely be all over the place.

• Expect rates to fluctuate this year between 7.25% and 5.75%.  
• There will be periods of rate drops, but with President Trump’s proposed policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, mortgage interest rates will likely remain elevated.
• The Fed has signaled that they only anticipate cutting rates by 50 basis points in 2025, which signals that inflation is still a concern and will keep rates elevated.

3) Home prices will rise steadily

• In the Lake Tahoe region, we anticipate that home prices will increase by 2-6% throughout the year.
• Pricing should continue to build off the second half of 2024, and with more inventory and increased activity in the market, pricing should remain positive.

4) Homeowners Insurance will remain a challenge

• We do not anticipate much help in the Lake Tahoe markets on the insurance front. We are in a High Wildfire Severity Area and a Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), which scares many insurance companies away. Anticipate having to obtain a California Fair Plan for fire insurance and a Difference in Conditions policy for all other perils. Insurance costs will likely remain high until more insurance providers enter the market, which is unlikely at this point.
• We have great insurance broker contacts and can help you find the best policy possible. Please reach out for assistance.

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Archive

View All Tahoe Real Estate Market Reports
Year End 2023 Real Estate Market Report
Year End 2022 Real Estate Market Report 

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