Lake Tahoe Real Estate Q2 2024 Market Report

The Tahoe Real Estate Market Sends Mixed Signals in Q2

The Lake Tahoe summer selling season is upon us and after the first half of the year, some trends are emerging that we wanted to share. The Lake Tahoe real estate market remains desirable as a premier year round vacation destination for Northern California. Buyers with long term ownership goals continue to purchase good quality homes in desirable neighborhoods. These buyers want to start making memories NOW and plan on owning their properties for years to come, so timing a purchase is less of a concern.

Inversely, many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, paralyzed by the uncertainty associated with high mortgage interest rates, increased costs associated with fire insurance and the uncertainty that inflation has caused. The sidelined buyers tend to be short term focused and are watching some incredible opportunities pass by. 

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Q2 2024 Highlights

• Homes are selling for 99% of the asking price, Up 2%
• Number of homes sold Up 7%
• Median home price Up 3% to $1,230,000
• High Sale: Brockway Springs Lake Tahoe Lakefront at $8,200,000

Sellers Return to the Lake Tahoe Market

Market wide, a number of sellers have returned to the market after a multi-year hiatus, resulting in the biggest inventory jump in a few years. For the first time since pre-pandemic, we have 7 months of housing inventory, which takes us out of stable market conditions and into a buyer’s market, where sellers have less negotiating power. Tahoe luxury real estate communities such as Martis Camp, Lahontan and Olympic Valley have a significant amount of inventory compared to the number of sales, creating some great opportunities and an advantage for buyers.

Unfortunately, many Tahoe sellers are utilizing aspirational pricing strategies rather than market based pricing, so there are a lot of homes for sale that feel overpriced to buyers, which is slowing down the absorption rate. In this bifurcated market, buyers are only making moves when there is a good value proposition and they feel a strong emotional connection. When the value proposition is removed, buyers tend to shy away from purchases in this resort market.  

Many Desirable Neighborhoods Remain Inventory Constrained

On the West Shore of Lake Tahoe, there is little-to-no inventory in desirable neighborhoods with HOA beach access such as Tahoe Park, Tahoe Swiss Village and McKinney Shores. While some neighborhoods have ample inventory, other communities have literally none, which makes generalized market analysis challenging. There are a number of communities where now is the perfect time to get your home on the market, while other communities are saturated with active listings. Please reach out for community specific analysis as we would be honored to review market conditions in your neighborhood.

Year over Year Market Conditions and Value Trends

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Year Q2 2024 Market Report Sales Chart

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Q2 2024 Market Report Sales Volume Chart

*North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee Single-Family Home sales including lakefronts. Data is taken from the Tahoe-Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS Areas 1-9.

Absorption Rate: 7.13 Months of Inventory = Buyer’s Market

The term absorption rate refers to a metric used in a specific real estate market to evaluate the rate at which available homes are sold during a given period of time. Here are the market statistics used to determine the absorption rate for single family homes in the North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee real estate market.

Absorption Rate (single-family homes)

• 285 Sales in the Last 6 Months
• 47.5 Sales per Month
• 1.58 Sales Per Day
• 339 Current Active Listings
• 339 Listings / 47.5 Sales Per Month =7.13 Months of Inventory = Buyer’s Market
  • 1 to 3 Month Supply of Inventory = Seller’s Market
  • 4- 6 Months of Inventory = Balanced Market
  • 6+ Months of Inventory = Buyer’s Market

Over the last few months, active listing inventory has increased to the highest level we have seen in a few years. We now have 7.13 months of single-family homes for sale, which is a sizeable jump and the ratio of sales to active listings has skewed to the buyer’s advantage. Many neighborhoods still suffer from a lack of inventory but overall, sellers are now at a disadvantage as the absorption rate is over 6 months. This means that in many instances, buyers will be able to negotiate price reductions, credits, and more favorable terms.

Fun fact: There’s a lack of inventory just below the median home price of $1,230,000. Many single family homes priced below the median value receive multiple offers are there are more buyers searching for these properties.

Pending Home Sales Provide Market Insight 

Pending sale activity shows transaction volume up 49% over June closings with the average home price up 7% year over year. Currently, there are 117 pending single-family homes in escrow with an average list price of $2,000,310 and a median price of $1,299,000. If these homes sell at the 1% average list to sold discount, we will see a significant market wide bump in the next 30-45 days. Out of the 116 pending sales, 65% are priced over $1M with 20 homes above $3M, and 6 listing above $5M. The average marketing time for the pending sales in at 43 days, which is slightly lower than the Q2 average. 

The pending sales data shows that Tahoe real estate market remains stable and healthy despite elevated inventory levels, stubbornly high interest rates, and inflationary concerns. Lake Tahoe buyers are searching for good quality homes in desirable subdivisions, so those homes are selling well, while dated homes with differed maintenance in less desirable neighborhoods are proving challenging to sell.

Tahoe Buyer’s Are Reserved and Discerning

Buyers are more discerning than they have been in the last 5 years, but when they find the right home they are making moves. If you have a high-quality home that is located in a great neighborhood and the price is in-line with the market, this is a great time to be a seller. Many sellers are pricing their homes above the market, resulting in longer days on market and a more challenging sale process. 

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Archives

View All Tahoe Real Estate Market Reports
Q2 2023 Real Estate Market Report
June 2022 Real Estate Market Report

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