Wildfire and Extreme Air Quality Could Not Slow the Tahoe Real Estate Freight Train in Q3

Shackled inventory, excessive buyer demand, and a desire to live, work, and play in the mountains have launched the Tahoe real estate market into the stratosphere. Fueled by the pandemic, Tahoe real estate has become more desirable than ever, and in Q3 we saw the median single-family home price jump 31% over Q3 2020. Remarkably, 69% of home sales in Q3 were priced over $1M, propelling the median home price to $1,175,000. Homes are selling 58% faster than last year, showing that inventory cannot keep pace with demand. Top-tier homes at every price point are selling within days as buyers are ready, willing, and able to put deals together.

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Q3 2021 Highlights

• Average Marketing Time = 20 Days Down 58%
• Average Home Price = $1.78M Up 31%
• Median Home Price = $1.17M Up 31%
• Sales volume of $3M+ homes is Up 17%
• 16 Martis Camp sales in Q3, Average price: $8.3M Up 45% 
• 69% of sales in Q3 were over $1M 
• YTD: 547 sales over $1M, Up 42%
• YTD: 101 sales over $3M, Up 33%

The number of homes sold in Q3 was down 40% from last year, which appears to be due to a combination of limited inventory and a severe fire season that threatened South Lake Tahoe, included area-wide evacuations and the closure of the Tahoe National Forest. The Caldor and Dixie Fires caused some of the worst air quality recorded in the Tahoe Basin, resulting in approximately 30 days of lost market activity. As the threat from wildfire quelled, pent-up demand returned to the Tahoe real estate market, allowing Q3 to finish strong and with record-setting stats.

 

Year over Year Market Conditions and Value Trends

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Q3 2021 Market Report Sales Chart

 

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Q3 2021 Sales Volume Chart

*North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee Single-Family Home sales including lakefronts. Data is taken from the Tahoe-Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS Areas 1-9.

Absorption Rate: Only 36 Days of Inventory = Extreme Seller’s Market

The term absorption rate refers to a metric used in a specific real estate market to evaluate the rate at which available homes are sold during a given time period. Here are the metrics and absorption rate for the North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee real estate market.

Absorption Rate (single-family homes)

• 779 Sales in the Last 6 Months
• 130 Sales per Month
• 4.3 Sales Per Day
• 157 Active Listings
• 157 Listings / 4.3 Sales Per Day = 36 Days of Inventory or 1.2 Months of Inventory
• >2 Months of Inventory = Strong Seller’s Market
  • High Rates of Appreciation and Regular Multiple Offer Situation
• 1 to 3 Month Supply of Inventory = Seller’s Market
• 4- 6 Months of Inventory = Balanced Market
• 6+ Months of Inventory = Buyer’s Market

Currently, there are 121 pending homes in escrow with an average list price of $1.68M and a median list price of $1.27M, which shows that the market remains bullish as pricing continues to rise in this inventory-constrained market.

 

When Will the Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Slow Down?

For the market to stabilize, we would need 4-6 months of inventory or a total of 519 active listings. Currently, we have 1.2 months of inventory, which means that we need 362 new single-family listings to achieve stabilization. Over the course of the summer, we saw increased inventory, but did not achieve the 4 months of inventory needed for pricing stabilization. During the fall, we typically see inventory levels go down, so it does not seem that stabilization will take place in the near term and it is unlikely that stabilization will take place within the next 6-10 months.

If you’re considering selling your Tahoe/Truckee property, buyer demand is feverish and inventory is constrained, creating an opportunistic time to sell your home and possibly generate a record sale in your neighborhood.  

Only time will tell, but for now, it appears that the market will remain strong for the foreseeable future. If you are considering purchasing or selling, we would love to discuss your goals and help put a plan together so that we can help you succeed. 

 

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Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Archive

View All Tahoe Real Estate Market Reports
Q3 2020 Real Estate Market Report
Q3 2019 Real Estate Market Report

 

Contact Dave Westall – Lake Tahoe Real Estate Agent

As the premier Tahoe Realtor, I’m here to help, provide insight, and help you achieve your real estate goals. Let’s schedule a Zoom meeting to chat and discuss how I can be of assistance.

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